Steamer projections are now available and we’ve converted them to Ottoneu scoring (FGPTS) for 2016. It’s now to time dig into these projections position by position to see if we can find anything interesting for the upcoming season. Each Steamer projection sheet includes full projected stats for 2016 along with post-arbitration Ottoneu Average $ Values (FGPTS) and custom $ values by Ottoneu mastermind Justin Vibber.
The $ values are based on early versions of Steamer for 2016 and represent a snapshot in time. Use them to inform your valuation of various players but check back often for updates and new projection systems.
Today we’ll review 3B. You can find the full 3B projection list here.
Previous 2016 position reviews for Ottoneu:
2016 Steamer Position Review – 3B
- Right off the bat, it’s pretty clear that Steamer loves some Kris Bryant in 2016. Sitting just atop reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson is the reigning NL ROY Bryant with 1.44 P/PA and 939 FGPTS projected. Bryant’s OPS (.864) and wOBA (.371) pace the 3rd base field next year according to Steamer, and it’s reasonable Bryant should get a bump up your own list anyway because of his OF eligibility. It’s tough to go wrong between Donaldson and Bryant as your top 3B pick in 2016, but Steamer is a believer in the youngster and expects him to carbon copy his 2015 season. Post-arbitration it’s likely you own a ~ $30 Bryant. No worries…he’s worth it.
- Steamer still views Josh Donaldson as a potential #1 3B in 2016 but the thing that sticks out here is the projected decrease in power (just 31 HR), which is ultimately reflected in a lower P/PA (1.41 vs. 1.65 in 2015). Some regression is likely, though it may not be as severe as Steamer is projecting here. Bid with confidence on Donaldson because, like Bryant, he’s essentially a $40 Ottoneu player, and one of the safest picks around to anchor your lineup.
- Steamer isn’t shying away from the young guys in 2016 which is why Miguel Sano lands promptly as the #3 projected 3B with 875 FGPTS. Sano is a monster in the making (one of only three 3B with an wOBA > .360) and while his ultimate defensive position is still in question (slim chance at OF eligibility in 2016?), his power bat is not. You won’t be able to acquire Sano this off season for anything less than the moon, so enjoy the ride if you’re already an owner. I still expect a few BABIP bumps and bruises for Sano over the next year or so, but even with a slow start out of the gate in 2016 you should remain patient and confident that Sano is here to stay and could be a $40 Ottoneu player as soon as 2017.
- One of only two 3B’s to score 1,000+ FGPTS in 2015, Nolan Arenado is likely the safest pick among the top four projected 3B to lock in your 3B slot on a daily basis in 2016. Steamer projects Arenado with the highest SLG of all 3B’s next year (.516), and it’s entirely possible that at his young age (age 25 season) he has yet another gear that will help drive him to a career year. If you own or can draft Arenado for anything less than $30 in 2016, you’re looking at a nice profit.
- There is a serious drop off in both production and reliability in the 3B ranks after Arenado, but Steamer still projects Adrian Beltre as a upper echelon 3B heading (818 FGPTS @ 1.29 P/PA) into his age 37 season. The last 3B with a projected OPS > .800, Beltre may actually come at a slight discount in 2016, so don’t shy away ($18-$24) from this crusty veteran after the sexier names are off the board.
- Steamer bunches up the next three names so we’ll do the same here: Todd Frazier (768 FGPTS), Kyle Seager (761), and Evan Longoria (757). From a P/PA view, Steamer sees the heaviest regression coming from Frazier (1.19 P/PA vs. 1.30 2015), but it’s likely all three of these players will serve you well as a solid but unspectacular CI in 2016. With so many similarities in production the key here is really perceived value, so I’d be prepared to pay less for Longoria than both Frazier and Seager in most auctions since Longo has been on a downward trend for at least 3 seasons now. That said, if the price is similar for all three, Seager is the guy you want to go the extra dollar for.
- Maikel Franco lost time to injury in 2015, but Steamer still sees him as a top 10 3B heading into his sophomore season. Franco offers some upside on his projected .333 wOBA and may actually profile similar to Todd Frazier going forward, so he could be a good trade target this off season if you find another owner that isn’t yet a believer or has depth elsewhere on this list. The 3B ranks drop off quickly yet again after Franco (according to Steamer), so keep that in mind if Franco happens to be available in your 2016 auction draft.
- Mike Moustakas is owned for an average of just $6 in Ottoneu FGPTS leagues, and with Justin estimating an $11 value based on Steamer’s 2016 projections, it’s unlikely he’ll be an easy piece to acquire this winter if you don’t already own him in your league. The question remains whether he can be a full time top 12 starting 3B for your lineup (Steamer believes he can), but even if you have to platoon him occasionally with a guy like Luis Valbuena (.348 wOBA vs. RHP in 2015) you’re in good shape manning a thinning position at a cheap cost that allows you to fortify other areas of your lineup with the savings.
- Chase Headley a top 12 3B? Ugh. That should tell you more about the state of the 3B position than it does Headley himself, though Steamer does peg him as the biggest bounce back candidate among the top 12 with (1.10 P/PA vs. 0.97 P/PA 2015). Winning Ottoneu is as much about roster depth and flexibility as it is surplus value, so don’t overlook Headley just because he’s the definition of boring. Injuries happen at the hot corner frequently, so if you can roster Headley for ~ $6 and plug and play him when needed, you’ll have a nice advantage over your league mates in the long run.
- Gone is the 2B-eligible Justin Turner, but Steamer still likes him to crack the top 12 for 3B. On a P/PA basis Turner is a great asset if you can land him cheaply, but if you find yourself relying on him for more than 4-5 games per week you’re going to need a Plan B (and maybe C). Note his projected .330 wOBA but less than 600 PA.
- Trevor Plouffe makes a nice Plan B (19 HR, .319 wOBA), and could become a Plan A 3B if moved this winter to a smaller ballpark.
- Ottoneu winning strategy: let Pablo Sandoval be a problem for someone else in your league. He always seems to project better than he actually produces.
- Steamer likes Nick Castellanos to show some growth in 2016 (1.15 P/PA vs. 1.04 2015). You probably expect the same, as do most of your league mates. But the real question then becomes whether you can capitalize on that optimism in the form of moving Castellans for something even better, or hold him in hopes that he finally figures it out? Price is key here, so if you’re holding Castellans at ~ $7 or above, I’d be shopping him hard this winter within your league.
- If you happen to be drafting in a brand new Ottoneu auction this spring, David Wright is the perfect player to nominate early. His value is all over the place and it’s likely that someone else will be more than willing to overpay for him, as we can see here by his current $16 average price. He’s Longoria with an even worse injury history. Stay away.
- Another couple 3B’s extremely difficult to peg: Yasmany Tomas and Hector Olivera. Both may wind up with 3B/OF eligibility in 2016, which can be valuable, but Steamer isn’t yet a believer in either, so bid cautiously. Olivera has the better prospect pedigree, but he’s older and we haven’t seen any of it on the field yet either, so you shouldn’t bank on either of these guys starting for your team on a regular basis next year.
- It gets pretty ugly from here on out but Joey Gallo’s 1.23 P/PA stands out strongly from the crowd as you scan down the list. If you own Gallo you already know the boom or bust potential, as we saw it first hand in 2015. He’s still very young, has made great adjustments throughout the minors in his short career, and has the power to thrive in FGPTS, but he still might be best used as trade chip if you have other owners salivating over his potential. His OF eligibility helps tremendously so he could be a 2nd half platoon asset when he does come back up to TEX. He’s a polarizing player, but sometimes you have to take chances on players like Gallo to win.
- No idea about playing time or true potential, but it would be a good idea to at least have Adam Duval and Travis Shaw on your 2016 Watchlist.