Steamer projections are now available and we’ve converted them to Ottoneu scoring (FGPTS) for 2016. It’s now to time dig into these projections position by position to see if we can find anything interesting for the upcoming season. Each Steamer projection sheet includes full projected stats for 2016 along with post-arbitration Ottoneu Average $ Values (FGPTS) and custom 2016 $ values by Ottoneu mastermind Justin Vibber.
The $ values are based on early versions of Steamer for 2016 and represent a snapshot in time. Use them to inform your valuation of various players but check back often for updates and new projection systems.
Today we’ll review 2B. You can find the full 2B projection list here.
Previous 2016 position reviews for Ottoneu:
2016 Steamer Position Review – 2B
- Matt Carpenter was a breakout player in 2015 and likely found himself rostered by a lot of Ottoneu league champions. After hitting 11 HR in 2013, 8 HR in 2014, he smashed 28 last year to an almost 1,000 FGPTS season (1.46 P/PA). Steamer isn’t fully endorsing the power spike (.426 SLG), projecting just 16 HR in 2016, but despite the regression still sees Carpenter as the #1 2B in the land. If I’m drafting for the first time in 2016 I’m probably going to be very cautious about exceeding $28 – $30 for Carpenter next season, but if you already own him anywhere near his $21 average price, you’re in great shape.
- Jose Altuve is who he is and there’s not much analysis to be done. He may be the safest 2B on this list (1.24 P/PA) and actually projects to have a higher SLG than Carpenter (.433). Would not be surprising to see him finish 2016 as the top 2B in Ottoneu.
- Robinson Cano is currently owned for an average salary of $43 in Ottoneu. He projects to be worth ~ $25 in 2016. That means one thing: Cano is likely to be available in your auction draft this spring. Despite a renaissance 2nd half of 2015 (157 wRC+) Steamer only sees a very slight overall rebound (.337 wOBA vs. .335 wOBA 2015). Cano’s stellar body of MLB work will probably push him to the ~ $30 level in your auction, and I’m inclined to take the over on Steamer’s conservative estimate here.
- Injured for much of 2015, Anthony Rendon may also be available in your draft next spring. Assuming health (602 PA), Steamer sees a nice rebound (1.23 P/PA), but nearly enough to match his breakout 2014 (1.36 P/PA). As it stands I think Justin’s $20 value is spot on for Rendon, but I full expect him to go for a bit more in Ottoneu auctions.
- Steamer doesn’t love Jason Kipnis. Well, at least not at his 2015 level. Kipnis was on a 965 FGPTS pace last year despite hitting just 9 HR, and while Steamer sees a slightly better HR pace for 2016, Steamer sees big regression coming elsewhere, mostly in the form of fewer singles and doubles. Still, I think it will take more than $16 to land Kipnis in auction drafts.
- Ben Zobrist is still good. That’s the basic takeaway from his 2015 season (1.28 P/PA). Unfortunately, his SS eligibility was also taken away and is unlikely to ever return, so keep that in mind as you target Zobrist in drafts or in trade. Steamer still projects a strong season (113 wRC+) from Zobrist, but some of that value might be ballpark-dependent as he’s a hot commodity among MLB teams this winter and has yet to sign.
- Brian Dozier has averaged 1.18 P/PA over the past two seasons, but Steamer isn’t buying it for 2016 (1.08). Dozier brings to the table is his ability to stay healthy (700+ PA each of the last two seasons), but brings rough second half splits to the table each of the last two seasons too. Maybe Steamer thinks those sluggish half seasons will catch up to him as the new norm, but at $12 (average salary) or $14 (projected value), he looks like a strong buy compared to some of these other 2B options here. He’ll play most of 2016 at age 29.
- Dustin Pedroia’s projected 1.14 P/PA looks attractive sandwiched between Dozier and Kinsler (1.07), but can he remain healthy? Always a question that needs to be asked with Pedroia. Factor that mystery into your price, but don’t look away completely as Pedroia is still a very useful 2B even at the age of 32.
- Steamer sees more regression coming from Ian Kinsler in 2016 (1.07 P/PA, down from 1.18 in 2015), probably due to his age (33). His projected 98 wRC+ doesn’t bode well, and with 2B being much deeper than it once was, I would be hesitant to bid more than about $12 for Kinsler in 2016 if he’s available in your auction.
- Steamer appears to buy into Daniel Murphy’s late season surge (though it was really buoyed by a monstrous June) with a healthy .331 wOBA projected over 612 PA for a total of 718 FGPTS, or the 10th best 2B in 2016. I’m going to take the under on Murphy’s value hitting $17 next year primarily due to the fact that he still can’t hit LHP (.275 wOBA), which, ironically, makes him very similar to…
- Neil Walker is involved in a lot of trade rumors this winter, so if he ever finds his way out of PIT (BAL?) he might just be able to duplicate his career-best 2014 .356 wOBA (1.29 P/PA). Until then, Steamer sees a slight increase over last year’s somewhat disappointing production level. Bid confidently, but keep in mind Walker has averaged < 140 games played over the past four seasons.
- Steamer projects an almost 20% drop in per-PA production for Dee Gordon entering 2016 (1.02, down from 1.26). In fact, Steamer is also projecting a P/PA rate less than Gordon’s 2014 1.08 level. Speed just doesn’t play in Ottoneu FGPTS, and with just 6 HR over the last two seasons, I’m staying away from Gordon in every league.
- While you’re busy selling shares of Dee Gordon, you should be buying shares of Rougned Odor, the best name in the business. Roughed will play all of 2016 at just 22, and succeeded as one of the better 2B’s in 2015 after a terribly slow April/May. Steamer projects a .34 BB/K rate, which is important to keep an eye on since he walked just 3.6% of the time in the 2nd half of 2015. Still, with emerging pop and a solid K rate, Odor looks like a nice breakout candidate for 2016 and could find a place in the top 12 easily with a full season of AB’s (projected 767 FGPTS over 650 PA’s).
- Interesting to note where Howie Kendrick and Kolten Wong place on Steamer’s 2B projections: 1.13 P/PA for Kendrick; 1.03 for Wong. My impression is that your league may think differently and that a breakout might be imminent for Wong, but Kendrick is a steady, winning veteran worthy of at least a bench spot on a contending Ottoneu team. Sure, the breakout could come for Wong, but don’t overlook players like Kendrick.
- Two things stand out in Joe Panik’s Steamer projections for 2016: 1) 7 HR in 138 GP (vs. 8 in just 100 GP in 2015), and 2) .301 BABIP vs. .330 BABIP in 2015. These two things are hard to overlook, so keep them in mind when targeting Panik for next season. He’s still projected to be a bit better than Wong and Gordon, but you’ll be disappointed if you’re expecting a repeat of 2015 for your team.
- Safe to say at this point that 2014 was the career outlier for Josh Harrison, but Steamer bumps him just slightly above the group below (1.06 P/PA) and you should as well as his extra 3B/OF eligibility has some positive value. He’s a $6-$8 player.
- Let’s tackle the “slightly better than replacement level” group together here: Logan Forsythe (1.03 P/PA), Matt Duffy (1.05), DJ LaMahieu (1.05), Martin Prado (1.04), Brett Lawrie (1.04), Jonathan Schoop (1.04). The takeaway here is you shouldn’t get too worked up about any of these guys, as they each have their flaws but will likely all end up very similar at season’s end (and will all for about $5 or more). If you miss one, grab another, though I’d be most bullish on Forsythe repeating something similar to his breakout 2015.
- Both Rob Refsnyder and Devon Travis project well through the eyes Steamer (~.325 wOBA) but the first has playing time question marks and the second will be nursing a serious shoulder injury for part of 2016. Don’t pay full value here because it’s unlikely to pay off into a starting 2B, but if you can snag these guys like in the auction for $3-$5 they are worth holding until you know more.
- Scooter Gennett (25) owns a career .343 wOBA vs RHP. He also owns a career .135 wOBA vs. LHP. You can draw your own conclusions here, but if you ever get the chance to play in a league with this guy, chances are Scooter is already owned. Consider yourself lucky.
- Derek Dietrich found himself on more than a few rosters in the 2nd half of 2015 and was a useful utility man (.346 wOBA in 90 games) at multiple positions (2B, 3B, OF in 2016) when starting vs. RHP (134 RC+). He’ll probably be exposed a bit too much in 2016 with full playing time, but if you own him at ~$5 or less he’s a worthwhile gamble (1.11 P/PA) to plug and play when you’re doing your best to fill out all those GP in August.
- Steve Pearce is sort of the alter ego of Dietrich, a LHP masher that, despite a down year in 2015 that didn’t come close to replicating his insane 2014 breakout, found himself with surprise 2B eligibility entering 2016. His projected 1.18 P/PA sticks out like a sore thumb on the Steamer rankings here and he’s a smart play at a cheap price, especially if he finds himself in a nice ballpark this off season. Pearce is a sneaky-good late bench grab in auctions, so keep him on your draft room watchlist.
- Another little guy to keep on your watchlist is Dilson Herrera, who may just find himself with enough playing time to justify a breakout in 2016 for NYM. He’s always hit in the minors and, with the expected departure of Daniel Murphy, may be able to hit himself into your starting lineup with a little luck. Don’t bank on it, but he’s worth a $3 gamble at the end of your auction to find out.
- Did you know that Yangervis Solarte was the 14th best overall 2B in Ottoneu last year with 641 FGPTS (.324 wOBA)? Steamer doesn’t see a repeat, but he’ll be 28 in 2016, eligible at 1B/2B/3B, and finished the 2nd half last year hitting .353 wOBA (July), .348 wOBA (Aug.), and .362 (Sept.). Solarte makes excellent contact, hardly ever strikes out, and showed some nice hard hit skills last season. He’ll cost you almost nothing to draft or acquire, so I’m buying in all leagues.Did we miss any 2B you’re buying? Selling? Let us know in the comments.
Any 2B you’re buying or selling that we’ve missed? Let us know in the comments.