Johnny Cueto signed with the San Francisco Giants for $130M, but what’s his value ($) in Ottoneu (FGPTS) for 2016?
Take the poll below. Here’s what we know:
More calculators! Joe has updated his Ottoneu Auction Calculator with 2016 Steamer values and projections. You can read all about the Ottoneu Auction Calculator in Joe’s original post, but if you want to just go right to the tool, you can download it here.
For quick reference, here are the calculated 2015 replacement levels for Ottoneu FGPTS.
Questions? Need help? Let us know in the comments.
The Ottoneu Champions League was established in 2015 and brings together some of the best FGPTS champions among all Ottoneu leagues. You can see a full breakdown of the standings during last year’s inaugural season here (as well as our recent podcast review), but the purpose of this post is to take a very quick, very premature look at which teams might be best positioned to win the league in 2016. And since it’s not even December yet, we’ll do this using just a handful of useful tools available to us today:
Based on this limited information we’ll take a very rough approach at identifying some of the best Champions League teams heading into 2016, and we’ll do it simply by estimating how much surplus value each roster is currently carrying. Continue reading
In this week’s episode, Justin and I discuss inflation and some of our differing views of dollar values. I answer some questions about my auction calculator as well. As always, if you have any questions or comments, please leave them below or contact me on twitter (@OttoneuTrades). Any ideas for future podcast episodes (topics or guests) are appreciated as well.
In this week’s episode, Trey and I discuss replacement level for position players in addition to the auction calculator I’ve been working on. My methodology in calculating dollar values is discussed as well. As always, if you have any questions or comments, please leave them below or contact me on twitter (@OttoneuTrades). Any ideas for future podcast episodes (topics or guests) are appreciated as well. Enjoy the show.
Today I present to you the Holy Grail of Ottoneu Tools… Okay, well not really, but in all seriousness, this took a ton of work. So before I dig into the details, thanks to anyone who has already reviewed, questioned or commented on my work. The feedback is incredibly helpful.
Let us begin…
This is a custom dollar value calculator for Ottoneu FGPts leagues. What do I mean by “custom?” By custom, I mean that anything I thought to include as an input is able to be changed. Now you can see dollar values that directly reflect your opinions. Some examples of custom inputs: Replacement Level, PA and IP thresholds, # of prospects in a league, individual player’s projections… The list goes on. So, where do you start?
The Assumptions Tab: This is where the majority of inputs exists. Ignore “Methodology” for now (will come into play in future versions). And start with “Importing Rosters?” Selecting “Yes” will cause your league’s salaries and players to be removed from the total money, roster spots and Points Above Replacement (PAR) available in the league. To import rosters, use the Export.csv function on your team’s homepage and paste your players and salaries (as values) into the “Rosters” tab – cell A2 for names, cell B2 for salaries. Once rosters are included, You can still toggle between “Yes” and “No”, in the event that you want to see $ values ignoring players who are currently kept. (I do this constantly). As you will see in grayed out cells, toggling between “Yes” and “No” will automatically update the calculation.
Not only that, but you can also select assumptions for your own leagues regarding the number of prospects (and cost of said prospects) that will impact the values as well. This cost is in excess of the $1 mandatory cost that each roster spot requires. Ex: $2 cost for prospects is really $2 + $1. Please note that prospect inputs should be changed as league rosters are imported.
Next, you can change the PA and IP threshold for replacement level production. (Assumptions B29 and B33). These cells set the threshold for which all players receive replacement level production. What does this mean? Every player that is projected to received less playing time than the selected PA/IP threshold (currently 625/185 respectively) will receive replacement level production for the difference in plate appearances or innings pitched. Ex: 325PAs would give you 325PAs of a players own projection, in addition to 300PAs of replacement level production. (I probably would not tinker with this too much until I had set all my other assumptions).
As many of you know, I have been doing my own replacement level work this offseason. All of my benchmarks are included in the workbook. In an effort to keep everything custom, you can select your own replacement level that will update the dollar values (no reason to use my values if you disagree with me, PICK YOUR OWN!) You have two options, use the PPG methodology, or the Xth player ranked methodology. By PPG, all replacement levels will be calculated off of the designated PPG that you choose at each position. By Xth player ranked, the baseline for production is the Xth highest P/PA at a position (given all players projecting for 250PAs). So for example, the 17th C would be the 17th highest P/PA of all C projected for 250 or more PAs in 2015.
Now here’s where the fun comes in. Once you have updated your assumptions, go to the Batters and Pitchers tab. You will see the resulting $ values of your assumptions… Now go change your assumptions. Snap! The dollar values have updated. Now, remember, these values are calculated off of Steamer projections. “But wait!” you say, “I don’t agree with Steamer’s playing time projections.” That’s okay, because you can update the “Adj. PA” or “Adj. IP” column to be whatever you choose and the dollar values will update automatically. This is incredibly helpful for running scenarios. For example, what is Tulo worth if he gets 250PAs? 400? 600? (Look and find out). Also, you can change the position a player is getting replacement level for (if steamer did not include a position, 1B has been given as a default). So, what if Mike Trout was a SS (A man can dream…) what would the resulting cost difference be? What if Josh Harrison picked up SS? You get the point.
Also, I have only imported Steamer for now. Future iterations will let you pick between other projections, but in the interest of customization, all projections can be edited. If you think Robinson Cano will hit 22 HR instead of 18HR, change it. The values will update.
Last but not least, if you have selected “Yes” for “Importing Rosters?” all players currently owned will be excluded from the dollar values. (They will receive a $0 value and will no longer be marked as “Available” on the Batters and Pitchers tabs.) This is where the auction calculator part comes in… As you draft, simply type in the player’s salary in the “Drafted?” column and as a result, the dollar values will update. The player will be removed from the pool and his roster spot, salary and PAR will be excluded from calculations. No longer do you have to worry about inflation as a fudge factor, you can get specific inflation to your league depending on who has been kept/cut. A warning: Some teams/leagues keep overpriced players (causing inflation in keeper decisions). Is Miggy worth keeping at $70, probably not, but you might rather pay $70 and guarantee you own him than risk you rival snatches him away. Due to situations like this, it is very possible that a league can achieve negative inflation, or no inflation. This may cause you to disagree with a value placed on one of few remaining “Studs.” However, if 1 or 2 studs do appear under-priced, and consequently go for $10-$15 higher than their theoretical value, remember that there will be a lot of bargains available later. Consequently leaving underpriced talent. Ex: Hamels calculated at $24 (post roster import) and goes for $32. This increase in value is offset by the fact that steamer sees Cliff Lee, John Lackey, Gio Gonzalez, Yusmeiro Petit and Tim Lincecum as $10-$17 dollar assets. Does an $8 increase in Hamels price offset the fact that 3-4 of these guys may go for $10 less than their projected price? Something to consider.
That’s about it! I tried to make everything as custom as possible so that you can have dollar values that reflect your opinions as an owner. I’m happy to answer any questions or comments. I’m sure updates will be made and future iterations will be released. For now, this is a starting point. Enjoy!
The file should now be compatible with earlier versions of Excel.
Ottoneu Custom Auction Calculator (updated for 2016 Steamer!)
Are you setup to win your Ottoneu league in 2015?
The best way to win is to know when to go all in, and projecting your own team is just one small piece of that process. Here you’ll find a handy, visual tool that will help finish that process for you by measuring your own team against the rest of your league using 2015 projections.
The “2015 Roster Grid” tool is simple to use:
1) Download the Roster Grid here (.xlxs)
2) Export your league rosters from Ottoneu (you can find this .csv export file from your league team page for all owners)
3) Copy and paste your league’s rosters (players and salaries) into the League Salaries tab in the spreadsheet. Note: You may have to overwrite some player names like “Manuel Machado” into their common name of “Manny Machado” in order to get the lookup to work correctly in the Roster Grid tab).
4) Select the Roster Grid tab and begin entering team names, player names, and projections for each team in your league. Keep in mind you can update anything in “yellow” in the Roster Grid tab, and you will need to enter projected 2015 P/G and P/IP for each player on each team in order to get a full working comparison of each team in the League Summary tab.
The Roster Grid tab is really where this process comes alive. While it may take you some time to enter all teams and player names, the payoff is well worth it (and you only have to do it once).
Once all teams and player names have been added to the Roster Grid, you can begin entering your own projections into the spreadsheet. You can manipulate two variables of the projection system: P/G (or P/IP for pitchers), and playing time (as measured in GP or IP). The spreadsheet will do the rest, and provides you 2014 results along with 3 year average production as a guide.
So…I’ve entered all my data and projections – now what?
The real power of the tool is in the filters. You can now filter on just about any variable for 2015, including lineups, bullpens, players, position eligibility, P/G, playing time, etc. If you can work simple filters in Excel, you’re going to really enjoy what this tool offers you after entering the core league data.
Net, check out the League Summary tab. This tab now gives you a visual breakdown of the following:
* Each team in your league
* Total projected points for each team’s lineup, rotation, bullpen, and bench
* Visual graphs to help you compare teams at every critical level (P/G, P/IP, etc.)
More than 200 trades were made across Ottoneu in the week following the end of arbitration. That’s a good indication that leagues are waking up and in planning mode for 2015. There’s no better way to plan to build your own team than by doing it in the real time context of your closest competition, and this projection tool will help you do just that.
Please feel free to leave comments, questions, or requests in the comments section. You’ll note that the Roster Grid tool doesn’t utilize common projection systems like Steamer, etc., and instead offers 3 year averages. While Steamer and other systems may be added later, they are too much in flux right now with MLB signings that a 3 year average was the best, most static measurement for this process.
Hope you enjoy.
You can also join the Ottoneu community discussion here: https://ottoneucommunity.slack.com