Category Archives: Projections 📈

Podcast: Ottoneu Trade Strategy (Ep. 6)

In Episode 6 of the Ottoneu Trade Rumors podcast we discuss the best off-season trade strategies that help prepare teams for the 2016 season.  Give it a listen here.

OTR is alive!

A Shortcut to Projecting Hitters in Ottoneu

One of the better features of Ottoneu fantasy baseball is the linear weights-based scoring system for FGPTS and SABR.  These advanced, non-roto scoring options are well tuned to sabermetric-minded baseball fans, but they are not inherently intuitive until you get a feel for how a full season Ottoneu plays out.  Failure to quickly understand how player production and linear weights scoring are linked can put new Ottoneu owners at a disadvantage when entering an existing league of experienced game players.  In revisiting a RotoGraphs article by Justin Merry on how hitting is scored in Ottoneu (FGPTS and SABR), I was drawn to this statement:

If you total up a player’s fantasy points using this system, you will get a number that is going to be very close to ten times a player’s wRC.

Is this true? If so, wRC may serve as a nice “shortcut” to converting player production (and more importantly, projections), into actual FGPTS/SABR points for hitters, which can be helpful for owners new to the Ottoneu core scoring system.

Since this article is about taking shortcuts, I’ll take one myself and skip over all the statistical explanations for correlating FGPTS (hitters) to wRC and just give you the bottom line up front:

Over the small sample reviewed (2013 – 2015), the “wRC x 10” formula is a bit too generous, but if you adjust to “(wRC x 10)*.93” you can get pretty darn close to actual points scored, by player.

Let’s call this shorthand point calculation “wRCPTS”.  Here’s a quick graph (full version) showing the correlation of “wRCPTS” to Ottoneu scoring (FGPTS/SABR) for the top 100 hitters over the past three seasons:

2013 - 2015 FGPTS vs. wRCPTS vs. wRCx10

Top 100 hitters from 2013 – 2015 showing correlation of actual FGPTS (blue) scoring to wRC x 10 (red) and shorthand “wRCPTS” scoring (yellow).

In other words, a player’s “(wRC x 10)*.93” looks to be a viable but very general rule of thumb for quickly estimating how many points they have scored in a given season.  It isn’t perfect (speedier, low power hitters tend to have a greater correlation to wRC x 10, for example), but that’s the point: it’s just a shortcut designed to quickly get you to an estimated point total, by hitter, for linear weights. You can find the full three year comparison here.

Where could this shortcut help owners new to the Ottoneu game? Projections.

If you’re reading this article there’s a good chance you’re already comfortable converting projection data into linear weights scoring for FGPTS and SABR (Steamer projections, for example), but there are plenty of others who might benefit from a simplified version of a player-to-points calculation, which is what “wRCPTS” offers you.  It’s just a estimate (which can be quickly eye-balled by locating wRC on FanGraphs player pages), but sometimes that estimate is all you need to make an evaluation between comparable players.

Just for fun, let’s compare the “wRCPTS” shortcut calculation to the full scale calculation of FGPTS for 12 players using 2016 Steamer projections:

In graph form:

2016 Steamer Proj. by wRCPTS

In chart form:

2016 Steamer Proj. by wRCPTS Chart 2

2016 projected wRC and FGPTS by Steamer

Interesting? Helpful? “wRCPTS” seems to at least pass the eye test for viability, so if you’re new to Ottoneu and are having some trouble visualizing what player production might look like in a linear weights-based scoring system like FGPTS or SABR, give it a try.

Questions? Comments? Let us know.

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2016 Top 20 Starting Pitchers for Ottoneu (Steamer)

Here are your Top 20 SP for Ottoneu in 2016, as projected by Steamer.

2016 Top 20 SP by Steamer

  • Any surprises on this list?
  • Who represents the greatest bargain?
  • Which player(s) on this list are you staying away from?

Let us know in the comments.

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2016 Top 20 Hitters for Ottoneu (Steamer)

Here are your Top 20 hitters for Ottoneu in 2016, as projected by Steamer.

2016 Top 20 Hitters by Steamer

  • Any surprises on this list?
  • Who represents the greatest bargain?
  • Which player(s) on this list are you staying away from?

Let us know in the comments.

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2016 Player $ Values: Johnny Cueto (SFG)

Johnny Cueto signed with the San Francisco Giants for $130M, but what’s his value ($) in Ottoneu (FGPTS) for 2016?

Take the poll below.  Here’s what we know:

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2016 Player $ Values: Jason Heyward (CHC)

Jason Heyward signed with the Chicago Cubs for $184M, but what’s his value ($) in Ottoneu (FGPTS) for 2016?

Take the poll below.  Here’s what we know:

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2016 Steamer Position Review – RP

Steamer projections are now available and we’ve converted them to Ottoneu scoring (FGPTS) for 2016.  It’s now to time dig into these projections position by position to see if we can find anything interesting for the upcoming season.  Each Steamer projection sheet includes full projected stats for 2016 along with post-arbitration Ottoneu Average $ Values (FGPTS) and custom 2016 $ values by Ottoneu mastermind Justin Vibber.

The $ values are based on early versions of Steamer for 2016 and represent a snapshot in time. Use them to inform your valuation of various players but check back often for updates and new projection systems.

Today we’ll review RP.  You can find the full RP projection list here.

Previous 2016 position reviews for Ottoneu:

RP 2016 FGPTS Steamer Top 12

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Updated (2016) Ottoneu Auction Calculator

More calculators! Joe has updated his Ottoneu Auction Calculator with 2016 Steamer values and projections.  You can read all about the Ottoneu Auction Calculator in Joe’s original post, but if you want to just go right to the tool, you can download it here.

For quick reference, here are the calculated 2015 replacement levels for Ottoneu FGPTS.

Ottoneu Auction Calculator

Ottoneu Auction Calculator

Questions? Need help? Let us know in the comments.

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Keystone 2016 – Pick your 2B

Select your 2016 2nd Baseman

2016 Steamer Position Review – 2B

Steamer projections are now available and we’ve converted them to Ottoneu scoring (FGPTS) for 2016.  It’s now to time dig into these projections position by position to see if we can find anything interesting for the upcoming season.  Each Steamer projection sheet includes full projected stats for 2016 along with post-arbitration Ottoneu Average $ Values (FGPTS) and custom 2016 $ values by Ottoneu mastermind Justin Vibber.

The $ values are based on early versions of Steamer for 2016 and represent a snapshot in time. Use them to inform your valuation of various players but check back often for updates and new projection systems.

Today we’ll review 2B.  You can find the full 2B projection list here.

Previous 2016 position reviews for Ottoneu:

2B 2016 FGPTS Steamer Top 12

2016 Steamer Position Review – 2B

  • Matt Carpenter was a breakout player in 2015 and likely found himself rostered by a lot of Ottoneu league champions.  After hitting 11 HR in 2013, 8 HR in 2014, he smashed 28 last year to an almost 1,000 FGPTS season (1.46 P/PA).  Steamer isn’t fully endorsing the power spike (.426 SLG), projecting just 16 HR in 2016, but despite the regression still sees Carpenter as the #1 2B in the land. If I’m drafting for the first time in 2016 I’m probably going to be very cautious about exceeding $28 – $30 for Carpenter next season, but if you already own him anywhere near his $21 average price, you’re in great shape.

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