Tag Archives: projections

A Shortcut to Projecting Hitters in Ottoneu

One of the better features of Ottoneu fantasy baseball is the linear weights-based scoring system for FGPTS and SABR.  These advanced, non-roto scoring options are well tuned to sabermetric-minded baseball fans, but they are not inherently intuitive until you get a feel for how a full season Ottoneu plays out.  Failure to quickly understand how player production and linear weights scoring are linked can put new Ottoneu owners at a disadvantage when entering an existing league of experienced game players.  In revisiting a RotoGraphs article by Justin Merry on how hitting is scored in Ottoneu (FGPTS and SABR), I was drawn to this statement:

If you total up a player’s fantasy points using this system, you will get a number that is going to be very close to ten times a player’s wRC.

Is this true? If so, wRC may serve as a nice “shortcut” to converting player production (and more importantly, projections), into actual FGPTS/SABR points for hitters, which can be helpful for owners new to the Ottoneu core scoring system.

Since this article is about taking shortcuts, I’ll take one myself and skip over all the statistical explanations for correlating FGPTS (hitters) to wRC and just give you the bottom line up front:

Over the small sample reviewed (2013 – 2015), the “wRC x 10” formula is a bit too generous, but if you adjust to “(wRC x 10)*.93” you can get pretty darn close to actual points scored, by player.

Let’s call this shorthand point calculation “wRCPTS”.  Here’s a quick graph (full version) showing the correlation of “wRCPTS” to Ottoneu scoring (FGPTS/SABR) for the top 100 hitters over the past three seasons:

2013 - 2015 FGPTS vs. wRCPTS vs. wRCx10

Top 100 hitters from 2013 – 2015 showing correlation of actual FGPTS (blue) scoring to wRC x 10 (red) and shorthand “wRCPTS” scoring (yellow).

In other words, a player’s “(wRC x 10)*.93” looks to be a viable but very general rule of thumb for quickly estimating how many points they have scored in a given season.  It isn’t perfect (speedier, low power hitters tend to have a greater correlation to wRC x 10, for example), but that’s the point: it’s just a shortcut designed to quickly get you to an estimated point total, by hitter, for linear weights. You can find the full three year comparison here.

Where could this shortcut help owners new to the Ottoneu game? Projections.

If you’re reading this article there’s a good chance you’re already comfortable converting projection data into linear weights scoring for FGPTS and SABR (Steamer projections, for example), but there are plenty of others who might benefit from a simplified version of a player-to-points calculation, which is what “wRCPTS” offers you.  It’s just a estimate (which can be quickly eye-balled by locating wRC on FanGraphs player pages), but sometimes that estimate is all you need to make an evaluation between comparable players.

Just for fun, let’s compare the “wRCPTS” shortcut calculation to the full scale calculation of FGPTS for 12 players using 2016 Steamer projections:

In graph form:

2016 Steamer Proj. by wRCPTS

In chart form:

2016 Steamer Proj. by wRCPTS Chart 2

2016 projected wRC and FGPTS by Steamer

Interesting? Helpful? “wRCPTS” seems to at least pass the eye test for viability, so if you’re new to Ottoneu and are having some trouble visualizing what player production might look like in a linear weights-based scoring system like FGPTS or SABR, give it a try.

Questions? Comments? Let us know.

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2016 Top 20 Starting Pitchers for Ottoneu (Steamer)

Here are your Top 20 SP for Ottoneu in 2016, as projected by Steamer.

2016 Top 20 SP by Steamer

  • Any surprises on this list?
  • Who represents the greatest bargain?
  • Which player(s) on this list are you staying away from?

Let us know in the comments.

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2016 Top 20 Hitters for Ottoneu (Steamer)

Here are your Top 20 hitters for Ottoneu in 2016, as projected by Steamer.

2016 Top 20 Hitters by Steamer

  • Any surprises on this list?
  • Who represents the greatest bargain?
  • Which player(s) on this list are you staying away from?

Let us know in the comments.

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2016 Steamer Position Review – RP

Steamer projections are now available and we’ve converted them to Ottoneu scoring (FGPTS) for 2016.  It’s now to time dig into these projections position by position to see if we can find anything interesting for the upcoming season.  Each Steamer projection sheet includes full projected stats for 2016 along with post-arbitration Ottoneu Average $ Values (FGPTS) and custom 2016 $ values by Ottoneu mastermind Justin Vibber.

The $ values are based on early versions of Steamer for 2016 and represent a snapshot in time. Use them to inform your valuation of various players but check back often for updates and new projection systems.

Today we’ll review RP.  You can find the full RP projection list here.

Previous 2016 position reviews for Ottoneu:

RP 2016 FGPTS Steamer Top 12

Continue reading

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Updated (2016) Ottoneu Auction Calculator

More calculators! Joe has updated his Ottoneu Auction Calculator with 2016 Steamer values and projections.  You can read all about the Ottoneu Auction Calculator in Joe’s original post, but if you want to just go right to the tool, you can download it here.

For quick reference, here are the calculated 2015 replacement levels for Ottoneu FGPTS.

Ottoneu Auction Calculator

Ottoneu Auction Calculator

Questions? Need help? Let us know in the comments.

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2016 Steamer Position Review – 2B

Steamer projections are now available and we’ve converted them to Ottoneu scoring (FGPTS) for 2016.  It’s now to time dig into these projections position by position to see if we can find anything interesting for the upcoming season.  Each Steamer projection sheet includes full projected stats for 2016 along with post-arbitration Ottoneu Average $ Values (FGPTS) and custom 2016 $ values by Ottoneu mastermind Justin Vibber.

The $ values are based on early versions of Steamer for 2016 and represent a snapshot in time. Use them to inform your valuation of various players but check back often for updates and new projection systems.

Today we’ll review 2B.  You can find the full 2B projection list here.

Previous 2016 position reviews for Ottoneu:

2B 2016 FGPTS Steamer Top 12

2016 Steamer Position Review – 2B

  • Matt Carpenter was a breakout player in 2015 and likely found himself rostered by a lot of Ottoneu league champions.  After hitting 11 HR in 2013, 8 HR in 2014, he smashed 28 last year to an almost 1,000 FGPTS season (1.46 P/PA).  Steamer isn’t fully endorsing the power spike (.426 SLG), projecting just 16 HR in 2016, but despite the regression still sees Carpenter as the #1 2B in the land. If I’m drafting for the first time in 2016 I’m probably going to be very cautious about exceeding $28 – $30 for Carpenter next season, but if you already own him anywhere near his $21 average price, you’re in great shape.

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2016 Steamer Position Review – 3B

Steamer projections are now available and we’ve converted them to Ottoneu scoring (FGPTS) for 2016.  It’s now to time dig into these projections position by position to see if we can find anything interesting for the upcoming season.  Each Steamer projection sheet includes full projected stats for 2016 along with post-arbitration Ottoneu Average $ Values (FGPTS) and custom $ values by Ottoneu mastermind Justin Vibber.

The $ values are based on early versions of Steamer for 2016 and represent a snapshot in time. Use them to inform your valuation of various players but check back often for updates and new projection systems.

Today we’ll review 3B.  You can find the full 3B projection list here.

Previous 2016 position reviews for Ottoneu:

3B 2016 FGPTS Steamer Top 12

2016 Steamer Position Review – 3B

  • Right off the bat, it’s pretty clear that Steamer loves some Kris Bryant in 2016.  Sitting just atop reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson is the reigning NL ROY Bryant with 1.44 P/PA and 939 FGPTS projected.  Bryant’s OPS (.864) and wOBA (.371) pace the 3rd base field next year according to Steamer, and it’s reasonable Bryant should get a bump up your own list anyway because of his OF eligibility.  It’s tough to go wrong between Donaldson and Bryant as your top 3B pick in 2016, but Steamer is a believer in the youngster and expects him to carbon copy his 2015 season.  Post-arbitration it’s likely you own a ~ $30 Bryant.  No worries…he’s worth it.

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A Very Early Projection for the 2016 Ottoneu Champions League 🏆


The Ottoneu Champions League was established in 2015 and brings together some of the best FGPTS champions among all Ottoneu leagues.  You can see a full breakdown of the standings during last year’s inaugural season here (as well as our recent podcast review), but the purpose of this post is to take a very quick, very premature look at which teams might be best positioned to win the league in 2016.  And since it’s not even December yet, we’ll do this using just a handful of useful tools available to us today:

Based on this limited information we’ll take a very rough approach at identifying some of the best Champions League teams heading into 2016, and we’ll do it simply by estimating how much surplus value each roster is currently carrying.   Continue reading

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2016 Steamer Position Review – SS

Steamer projections are now available and we’ve converted them to Ottoneu scoring (FGPTS) for 2016.  It’s now to time dig into these projections position by position to see if we can find anything interesting for the upcoming season.  Each Steamer projection sheet includes full projected stats for 2016 along with post-arbitration Ottoneu Average $ Values (FGPTS) and custom $ values by Ottoneu mastermind Justin Vibber.

The $ values are based on early versions of Steamer for 2016 and represent a snapshot in time. Use them to inform your valuation of various players but check back often for updates and new projection systems.

We’ll start with SS.  You can find the full SS projection list here.

SS 2016 FGPTS Steamer Top 12.JPG

2016 Steamer Position Review – SS

  • Anyone surprised to see Machado top the list? You shouldn’t be.  There aren’t many players in the game that increased their value more than Machado did in 2015 with a combination of a breakout .370 wOBA and new-found SS eligibility.  Don’t worry, we’ll get to Correa, but if for some reason you find yourself with the choice of drafting Machado or Correa, don’t think too hard about it: Machado is projected to lead the position in 2016 with 27 HR and the only SS Steamer projects with an OPS over .800.  He should sit comfortably at #1 in total FGPTS (909) by the end of the season and Justin looks justified in valuing him > $40 at auction.

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2015 Ottoneu Roster Grid

2015 Ottoneu Roster Grid (updated)

Attached you’ll find an updated version of the 2015 Ottoneu Roster Grid for FGPoints leagues.  You can use the Roster Grid in a number of different ways:

  • Pre-load existing team rosters before your league auction begins to determine your needs at various positions, what you expect (project) from various free agents, and how much money you have available to spend compared to your rivals.
  • Load all rosters after your league auction in order to compare (power rankings) and evaluate teams overall or by position to determine strengths and weaknesses, contenders and pretenders, and everything in between.
  • Easily and quickly build your own player projections using the template to compare against three year averages, 2014 production,  and FG Fans expectations for the upcoming season.

While the tool may look intimidating at first glance, it is very easy to use for even those with just basic Excel skills.

First, from your league page, download your league rosters to Excel.  Next, highlight and copy both the Player Name and Salary columns from your league rosters sheet into cell “A6” of the League Salaries (Input) tab in the Roster Grid.  This action should populate the salary for each owned player in and the total salary of each team in your league.

Next, enter the name of each team in your league in the League Salaries tab.  This will enable to you to quickly select each team in the Roster Grid tab (column I).

Finally, enter your projections for each rostered player on the Roster Grid tab.  You can input two variables: the P/G (or P/IP) you expect the player to score in 2015 (column N), and the Games Played (or Innings Pitched) per player you expect from each player in 2015 (column O).  As a guide, the P/G or P/IP in column N will default to the average of the three previous production columns, but you may override this production level depending on how you expect a player to perform in 2015.  In other words, you can use the averages provided, or can easily override this information if you feel strongly one way or another about either the playing time or production level of a player on your team (or another owner’s team).

There – you’re done.  Once you’ve entered each player on each team and their respective production levels and playing time, check out the Summary tab, which will provide you with a quick, graphical comparison of your team vs. others in your league.  These graphs will change in real time according to your Roster Grid projection entires, so they should help give you an easy way to determine where your team needs improvement or where it is better than others.

The Roster Grid is one more tool to help prepare you for Ottoneu success in 2015.  Enjoy.

If you have questions, or see any issues, feel free to contact me on the #OttoneuCommunity on Slack, or leave comments here.

2015 Ottoneu FGPTS Roster Grid

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